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Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Carbon & Climate The Crux

There seems to be a lot of confusion out there on how are climate is changing, yes is is! there is no doubt it's fact a here's how we know.
One very accurate way to measure past climate is via the polar ice.


The gases trapped in the snow each year is a record of exactly what was in the air at that time. This data record can go back 200,000years.

To the lay person measurements of these gases on parts per million may seem too little to matter – but stop! Carbon dioxide even in small amounts is very efficient at keeping solar energy trapped near the earth’s surface.
During ice ages CO2 levels are generally around 180-190 ppm parts per million that's 0.018 to 0.019%, during warm interglacial periods like now CO2 levels are around 290ppm and from about 20,000 years ago to the end of the 19th century levels ranged between 260-290ppm. Since then it has gone up to 390ppm at present.

So what do these tiny air bubbles trapped in the ice tell us well since the last ice age 18,000 years ago to the beginning of the industrial revolution Carbon Dioxide concentrations increased steadily at about 2-3 parts per million every year,that’s 100 faster increase than before.


 
OK so we know for sure there is more CO2 in the air than before and it's been rising since 1800.
How do we know this rise in CO2 is then related to a rise in temperature? Glad you asked.
 
All water is H2O  made of 2 hydrogen atoms and 1 oxygen. Most oxygen atoms have 8 protons and 8 neutrons giving them a total atomic weight of 16. Most but not all some have 9 and 10 neutrons with total weights of 17 and 18 they are isotopes of oxygen.
Now most H has just 1 proton or H1, but some have 1 proton and 1 electron and they are H2 or it even has a new name deuterium.
 
These isotopes are heavier than your regular oxygen and hydrogen atom which means as water is evaporated and precipitated as it moves from the equator to the poles the heavier isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen are left behind. Hence, during a warm period, the relative amount of O18 will increase in the ocean waters since more of the O16 is evaporating. Measuring the ratio of 016  to O18 in the polar ice gives and indication of the temperature at that time.
 
Putting both of these together indicate the amount of CO2 in the air is directly related to the temperature.
 
Now some of your may then say but don't plants need CO2 anyway and more CO2 will make bigger trees, For this to happen everything else needs to be raised in tandem your going to need more of everything else, this is not practical in a vast rain forest or open grass lands.

You may be asking can the planet's climate really be tip over, Yes! it's happened before ask any geologist or even someone who collects rock for a hobby and they'll tell you the planet has seen numerous mass extinctions of life, it's written in the rocks! No it won't happen overnight it will be a slow tight squeeze!

As I've mentioned before. Plants use day/night length plus the number of cold days in winter to determine when to flower. Why?  Flowering too early, then having a late frost could spell disaster for the plant. Plants have evolved a number of different ways to overcome the problem. Some plants like mangoes will only flowers after going through a prolonged period of cold. This will have major implications for growers as the climate warms - the warmers summers may not be as much of a problem, however warmer winters will see the viability of some agricultural industries in some areas finish and some native plants will become extinct.
 
So there is is it's temperature is going up weather you like it or not there is the proof. The government has shown leadership and courage to start the ball rolling on reducing our emissions. Well done!

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